Fantasy draft countdown

I have my fantasy draft tonight. It's a 10-team "traditional" scoring league and we start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 RB/WR, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D each week. To some extent, I'm clueless about this year's draft because there are so many players with both huge potential and serious question marks. But on a few things I have some thoughts, especially the Browns...

1. William Green seems to be a consensus top 20 back and he should be. Despite not having the best numbers last season, Green still showed plenty and has the potential to be a top 10 back this year. He's going in rounds 2-4, and I think round 3 is about right. Since my league is full of Cleveland-area players it wouldn't be shocking to see him go ahead of the good-but-not-great RBs in the second round.
   
2. Kelly Holcomb is a big wildcard. He could go in the 6th or as late as the 16th. I think he's a 9th rounder, which means he's among the better backups. Even amongst Browns fans I don't see anyone gambling on Kelly being their starting QB. But it's always nice to draft a player who may wind up besting your starter down the stretch.
   
3. Quincy Morgan is a big sleeper. He's more of a #3 receiver than a #2 at this point. While everyone expects the Browns to score points, there are a lot of undetermined things affecting how much Morgan will get the ball. Holcomb is a bit of an unknown but I'd think it would help Morgan see more deep balls. Green's emergence is likely to reduce the amount of passing overall. The team's poor defense may result in the offense playing from behind, which would seem to increase the passing. Then the fact that there will be 4 or 5 nice receivers on the roster means Morgan will have competition for catches. And of course Morgan's penchant for the occasional drop or somewhat boneheaded play makes it hard to really rely too much on him. I think he'll go before Holcomb in most draft though, which means he's an 8th round pick.
   
4. Kevin Johnson is a true sleeper this year. If the Browns wind up passing more than they want (and it is likely) then KJ will get more catches than expected. Holcomb seems to attack wherever the defense is softest, and now that KJ is the #2 guy he may see some better matchups. Plus he's got fantastic hands. KJ will drop but he will be a nice #3 receiver as a 9th rounder.
   
5. Northcutt will make a big fantasy impact if there are injuries to other wide outs and he continues to be electric returning punts. Draft him in the 13th and hope things play out. Really, Terry Glenn or Ah-Zahir Hakim are not going to make your season but a guy like Northcutt could.
   
6. Andre Davis is a bit like Northcut for different reasons, namely that Morgan gets hurt or is benched and Davis builds on a nice rookie season. Also, remember Davis looked good early with Holcomb at the helm last year. I'd pick him ahead of Northcutt if he is healthy. Right now health is a question. 11th or 12th.
   
7. Jamel White is a late draft pick, or will go undrafted (which is criminal). I'd personally rather have White than most team's backups cause he'll play 3rd downs all the time, and if he is pressed into starting duty that means a ton of playing time. Take him over all the other guys on the RB sacrp heap, guys like Marcel Shipp, etc. White's a 14th rounder.
   
8. Lee Suggs is listed here because people are actually drafting him. Don't. There's been talk of him being the goalline back, but it seems increasingly unlikely. Besides having a shoulder injury and not playing, William Green and Jamel White seem to do quite well in goalline packages. And how many 1-yard touchdown runs is a Browns RB really going to get this year? While Suggs may prove to have some value, he's more like a free agency guy late in the year if circumstances dictate.
   
9. Tim Couch is not getting drafted, though one could make a case for taking a flyer on him. As far as backups go, at least he'd inherit a good offense. But it may be hard to excel with all the baggage. If you have space at the end of the draft it;s worth considering anyway. But it's like betting double zero in roulette... and it only pays 3-1.

For non-browns.... Shockey seems over-rated this year; I'd rather have Gonzalez.... Hines Ward or Burress? I don't know which is better.... Chad Johnson seems to be among the better WRs, even with Kitna at the helm.... The Raven offense looks ugly, and if the defense doesn't dominate even Jamal Lewis may not have a very good year... Tommy Maddox is not a fantasy starter... I'd draft Bulger if he was available late... No Jets WRs seem worthwhile... Plummer is a backup, and not a good one at that... Of all the top RBs, Shaun Alexander's massive talent and inconsistency make for a tough combination... I wonder if Corey Dillon is in the doghouse... A lot of fantasy seasons will depend on players from the Saints and Seahawks and that is just nuts... After you look around the league it's clear that the Browns have a good shot at someone having a fantasy breakout season... I want to root for Favre and the Packers, but O-line and health questions temper my enthusiasm... Onterrio Smith is worth taking a gamble on... Josh Reed is not...