Offseason Review
ESPN is doing it's offseason overview of the AFC North this week. While the articles don't cover anything new, it's does provide an opportunity to size up the division.
The Bengals enter this coming year poised to get a lot of positive press. After all, last season was their first non-losing season in a very long time. I think they could be good in 2004, but nothing much in their offseason screams "playoff contender," and it's entirely possible they regress somewhat.
What do the Bengals have going for them? A great trio of wide receivers, and the tough Rudi Johnson at running back. Former pro-bowl cornerback Deltha O'Neal was added to improve a pretty lame secondary. Most of their draft picks were on the defensive side of the ball, so perhaps they've unearthed a few diamonds (DBs Keiwan Ratliff and Madieu Williams are most likely to get opportunities). And they added by subtraction by dumping off Corey Dillon. And perhaps most importantly, they've got a good offensive line.
Negatives? Second-year QB Carson Palmer will get his first action as a starter and while I think he'll do fine it's a big question mark. RBs Johnson and Perry don't have lots of speed. The secondary will consist of a lot of new players. Defensively it's not at all clear they've done enough to improve one of the poorer units in the NFL.
Overall, I think the Bengals will a somewhat middling season. They definitely have some weapons on offense, but it's likely that Carson Palmer will run into more than a few defenses that will get the best of him. The combination of a young QB and a porous defense makes it hard to believe the Bengals will best their 2003 performance. But if they hang close they have the option of going back to Kitna if Palmer struggles to kep them in the hunt. Given that, I think they'll have a shot at the playoffs come the last two weeks of the season. Say 8-8 depending on how the QB position plays out.
Our friends in Pittsburgh are also in an offseason fog -- there's not many signals that the team will be much different than 2003. The front office strategy seems to be patience while waiting for more playmakers to emerge from it's current roster. It seems unlikely that will be a successful approach.
Pros: Hines Ward and Randel El. I like the signing of Duce Staley quite a bit, and he's liable to really add a new dimension to the offense if he statys healthy.
Cons: There's a pretty big list. On defense, the team let Jason Gildon go. He hasn't been dominant for some time, but he was still one of their best defensive players and I doubt Clark Haggans or even Kendrell Bell can step it up. The secondary is still poor even though their 2nd rounder was spent on what will probably be a nickel or dime guy. On offense, the line is still a weakness despite and adding OT Max Starks in the draft isn't likely to improve the starting lineup. Who knows what is going on with Plaxico Burress as he's rumoured to be on the market or even possibily released. I suspect that issue will subside come August. Finally, I think Tommy Maddox is a poor quarterback. He seems to be a good leader but his lack of mobility and tendency to misfire is going to continue to be a negative.
Despite a long list of negatives I do think the Steelers can manage if Staley and Bettis help the Steelers rediscover the ground game. That's not a sure thing, and the Steelers could be a team in decline. A tough team to predict. 6-10.
Baltimore, on the other hand, I would bet against no matter what the odds. Unfortunately they're a team that could be very good in 2004 despite continuing to flirt with disaster. I think winning maybe 10 games and earning a playof spot is a real possibility, but these Ravens are not going to runaway with the AFC North.
First, the reasons they have to be considered the favorite: They have the best two players in the division in Ray Lewis and Jamal Lewis. It doesn't really matter that these two guys could/should be in jail. It's probably safe to say that the defence will be very good. The offensive line continues to be a real strength with Odgen. And as long as Jamal Lewis takes the field the running game will force the attention of opposing defenses. Todd Heap is probably the most overlooked offensive weapon in the league right now too, and gives the Ravens their best med-range passing threat.
The big questions are the same as in years past -- quarterback and wide receiver. Kyle Boller is scheduled to start and, as Browns fan, I hope he looks about as good as last year. In other words, the jury is out on whether he can be an adequate starter. Backing him up is Kordell Stewart. I would not be surprised at all if the Ravens pursued another quarterback, even Couch. At WR the Ravens have no one of note. Their entire offense will rely on moving the ball up the middle with Lewis and Heap, and the passing game will otherwise have to take on a complimentary role. And, oh yeah, Jamal Lewis is set to go on trial on drug charges in August. I can't pretend to know how that will shake out, but if someone is on trial for serious felony charges there must be a decent chance of him doing some time. The whole ordeal may very well motivate an exhonerated Jamal Lewis to tear up the league, but, really, can such a thing be a net gain for a team? I doubt it.
I'm saying 10-6 and maybe the AFC North crown by a nose. The Ravens appear to have built a productive _system_ that produces aggressive and fundamentally sound preformances on the field. It will likely insulate then from a losing record, and they have enough stars to do very well.
The Browns. Oh yeah, the Browns. Good luck trying to figure out how the Browns 2004 season will go. There's been seemingly endless upheaval this offseason, starting with the front office where the team lost it's CEO Carmen Policy, countless high-profile consultants and executives, and a few coaches too. All of this is some combination of Butch Davis' thirst for control and Randy Lerner putting his imprint on the organization. But as entertaining as such fireworks may be, it's nearly impossible for an outsider (or even most insiders) to judge how all this will affect the team. So I'm going to set aside the front office changes and focus on the coaches and the roster, where there's been plenty enough change to fill a short book.
Pros: The team has seemingly upgraded its talent at a number of positions: QB with Garcia, TE with Winslow, FB with Smith, LB with Holdman. They've also kept or developed a number of promising players: RB Lee Suggs, WR Dennis Northcutt, RB William Green (who appeared to be a lost cause 6 months ago), and maybe even S Earl Little. Free agent OG Kelvin Garmon figures to start and help replace Barry Stokes and Shaun O'Hara. In fact, the Browns are the only AFC North team without a deficiency at an offensive skill position. On defense there hasn't been a lot of change and I'm inclined to think that's probably good -- last year this unit played well, and 2004 figures to have pretty good talent and depth if not an abundance of playmakers.
Cons: The offensive and defensive lines. The OL, in particular, is a huge worry and the best the Browns can be hoping for is to be average. The D-line has more hope, but is also to two adequate players the Browns are paying like stars in Warren and Brown. I'm no fan of Robert Griffith at safety, and there's no one threatening to come in and take his job. And finally, all the offseason upheaval produced a new offensive coordinator which means a new offense to learn and implement. There's a lot that could go wrong.
My guess is 7-9. Maybe the Browns can make a push for the playoffs if no AFC North wins more than 10 games. If it all comes together offensively this team could be very dangerous, but I've lived long enough in Cleveland to not count on that.
The Bengals enter this coming year poised to get a lot of positive press. After all, last season was their first non-losing season in a very long time. I think they could be good in 2004, but nothing much in their offseason screams "playoff contender," and it's entirely possible they regress somewhat.
What do the Bengals have going for them? A great trio of wide receivers, and the tough Rudi Johnson at running back. Former pro-bowl cornerback Deltha O'Neal was added to improve a pretty lame secondary. Most of their draft picks were on the defensive side of the ball, so perhaps they've unearthed a few diamonds (DBs Keiwan Ratliff and Madieu Williams are most likely to get opportunities). And they added by subtraction by dumping off Corey Dillon. And perhaps most importantly, they've got a good offensive line.
Negatives? Second-year QB Carson Palmer will get his first action as a starter and while I think he'll do fine it's a big question mark. RBs Johnson and Perry don't have lots of speed. The secondary will consist of a lot of new players. Defensively it's not at all clear they've done enough to improve one of the poorer units in the NFL.
Overall, I think the Bengals will a somewhat middling season. They definitely have some weapons on offense, but it's likely that Carson Palmer will run into more than a few defenses that will get the best of him. The combination of a young QB and a porous defense makes it hard to believe the Bengals will best their 2003 performance. But if they hang close they have the option of going back to Kitna if Palmer struggles to kep them in the hunt. Given that, I think they'll have a shot at the playoffs come the last two weeks of the season. Say 8-8 depending on how the QB position plays out.
Our friends in Pittsburgh are also in an offseason fog -- there's not many signals that the team will be much different than 2003. The front office strategy seems to be patience while waiting for more playmakers to emerge from it's current roster. It seems unlikely that will be a successful approach.
Pros: Hines Ward and Randel El. I like the signing of Duce Staley quite a bit, and he's liable to really add a new dimension to the offense if he statys healthy.
Cons: There's a pretty big list. On defense, the team let Jason Gildon go. He hasn't been dominant for some time, but he was still one of their best defensive players and I doubt Clark Haggans or even Kendrell Bell can step it up. The secondary is still poor even though their 2nd rounder was spent on what will probably be a nickel or dime guy. On offense, the line is still a weakness despite and adding OT Max Starks in the draft isn't likely to improve the starting lineup. Who knows what is going on with Plaxico Burress as he's rumoured to be on the market or even possibily released. I suspect that issue will subside come August. Finally, I think Tommy Maddox is a poor quarterback. He seems to be a good leader but his lack of mobility and tendency to misfire is going to continue to be a negative.
Despite a long list of negatives I do think the Steelers can manage if Staley and Bettis help the Steelers rediscover the ground game. That's not a sure thing, and the Steelers could be a team in decline. A tough team to predict. 6-10.
Baltimore, on the other hand, I would bet against no matter what the odds. Unfortunately they're a team that could be very good in 2004 despite continuing to flirt with disaster. I think winning maybe 10 games and earning a playof spot is a real possibility, but these Ravens are not going to runaway with the AFC North.
First, the reasons they have to be considered the favorite: They have the best two players in the division in Ray Lewis and Jamal Lewis. It doesn't really matter that these two guys could/should be in jail. It's probably safe to say that the defence will be very good. The offensive line continues to be a real strength with Odgen. And as long as Jamal Lewis takes the field the running game will force the attention of opposing defenses. Todd Heap is probably the most overlooked offensive weapon in the league right now too, and gives the Ravens their best med-range passing threat.
The big questions are the same as in years past -- quarterback and wide receiver. Kyle Boller is scheduled to start and, as Browns fan, I hope he looks about as good as last year. In other words, the jury is out on whether he can be an adequate starter. Backing him up is Kordell Stewart. I would not be surprised at all if the Ravens pursued another quarterback, even Couch. At WR the Ravens have no one of note. Their entire offense will rely on moving the ball up the middle with Lewis and Heap, and the passing game will otherwise have to take on a complimentary role. And, oh yeah, Jamal Lewis is set to go on trial on drug charges in August. I can't pretend to know how that will shake out, but if someone is on trial for serious felony charges there must be a decent chance of him doing some time. The whole ordeal may very well motivate an exhonerated Jamal Lewis to tear up the league, but, really, can such a thing be a net gain for a team? I doubt it.
I'm saying 10-6 and maybe the AFC North crown by a nose. The Ravens appear to have built a productive _system_ that produces aggressive and fundamentally sound preformances on the field. It will likely insulate then from a losing record, and they have enough stars to do very well.
The Browns. Oh yeah, the Browns. Good luck trying to figure out how the Browns 2004 season will go. There's been seemingly endless upheaval this offseason, starting with the front office where the team lost it's CEO Carmen Policy, countless high-profile consultants and executives, and a few coaches too. All of this is some combination of Butch Davis' thirst for control and Randy Lerner putting his imprint on the organization. But as entertaining as such fireworks may be, it's nearly impossible for an outsider (or even most insiders) to judge how all this will affect the team. So I'm going to set aside the front office changes and focus on the coaches and the roster, where there's been plenty enough change to fill a short book.
Pros: The team has seemingly upgraded its talent at a number of positions: QB with Garcia, TE with Winslow, FB with Smith, LB with Holdman. They've also kept or developed a number of promising players: RB Lee Suggs, WR Dennis Northcutt, RB William Green (who appeared to be a lost cause 6 months ago), and maybe even S Earl Little. Free agent OG Kelvin Garmon figures to start and help replace Barry Stokes and Shaun O'Hara. In fact, the Browns are the only AFC North team without a deficiency at an offensive skill position. On defense there hasn't been a lot of change and I'm inclined to think that's probably good -- last year this unit played well, and 2004 figures to have pretty good talent and depth if not an abundance of playmakers.
Cons: The offensive and defensive lines. The OL, in particular, is a huge worry and the best the Browns can be hoping for is to be average. The D-line has more hope, but is also to two adequate players the Browns are paying like stars in Warren and Brown. I'm no fan of Robert Griffith at safety, and there's no one threatening to come in and take his job. And finally, all the offseason upheaval produced a new offensive coordinator which means a new offense to learn and implement. There's a lot that could go wrong.
My guess is 7-9. Maybe the Browns can make a push for the playoffs if no AFC North wins more than 10 games. If it all comes together offensively this team could be very dangerous, but I've lived long enough in Cleveland to not count on that.
posted by Michael @ 12:21 PM
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