My Season Prediction
The 2004 Browns will make fools of the national publications (like this) who pick them to be miserable. No, this team will be competitive and will have it's share of nice wins. There is just oo much talent not to matchup favorably with opponents, and I think the addition of Garcia, Winslow and Smith are good for a couple more wins than 2003. That doesn't quite get us to playoff-caliber football but it's a big improvement.
There are a lot of things to be concerned about when you look at the team's preseason perfomances. The offense generally struggled, especially the passing game, but it's the defense that I worry about the most. The Browns added almost no one to a solid but medicore group, and that sort of stagnancy is a little scary. We are basically betting on key guys to significantly improve from their 2003 performance, and there's no way that happens with al the players we'd like to see that fro. Warren, okay I can see it. C Brown, I guess to a lesser extent. But at the outside linebacker spots? Can Lang and Roye really play any better? Can Robert Griffith do anything but go a the big hit? Can McCutcheon again be a reliable presence? There are just so many questions. I can see our d-line faring prety well. The linebackers, will probably be steady, and if they just don't over pursue too many plays I'll be happy. But the safeties have me petrified of big plays. And someone really has to step up at corner to pair with Anthony Henry, who has to maintain his high level of play. There are likely to be some bumps in the road and the lack of playmakers in the secondary is the biggest obstacle towards a playof run.
Right behind the secondary, the O-line is again a big concern. I don't like not having a promising aub at guard to plug in, and am dissappointed the Browns brought in no one during training camp. Yes, I like to think this speaks well of guys like Beasley and Demar and maybe it does, but they really, really need to prove it on the field. Anyway, this is mostly a question of depth. The starting 5 is good enough and should be formidable in the running game. In pass blocking I think Garmon is a bigger liability than anyone is talking about. Overall, the offense will have to play to the strengths of the offensive line. If they do that, the OL won't look good every week but could look good a majority of the time.
Garcia, though not a perfect QB, will be a huge upgrade and we'l see it as the season unfolds. His health is the major concern, because the offensive libne is not built to adequately protect a guy like Holcomb. I love Garcia's instincts and aggressiveness, and hopefully his leadership will produce some positive results. Like his last few years in San Fran, the Browns offense will have to be based on running the ball. We appear to have the personnel to do that well. I love Suggs, think Green is adequate, the addition of Terrell Smith will be noticeable, and even getting Winslow will hopefully soften up the middle of the field a bit. At WR, the reality has been that Morgan is not a reliable guy, Northcutt is a huge playmaker without the size to get consistent seperation, and Davis is solid also has some dificulty gettting open. Do we have some good tools here? Definitely. Is this among the better NFL receiving corps? No. It's middle-tier. Finally, Winslow promises to really change the face of this offense and gives the Browns a tremendous upside. If he's a game-breaker we'll have a dangerous offense; if he's a non-factor we'll struggle. It's that simple.
Ultimately, however, this season will come down to coaching. The 2004 squad is probably the best test of coaching you'll see in quite a while. The team has plenty of talent, and obvious shortcomings. The success/failure will depend largely on schemes and playcalling, in attacking the opponent using the skills we have. And after the kind of offseason that went on in Cleveland with Butch Davis gaining huge territorial ground in Berea, perhaps this is as it should be. We also have quite abit riding on Terry Robiskie's adjustment to offensive coordinator. It won't take more than a month to see how this is likely to pan out.
Final prediction: 8-8, with a 1 game swing either way. I think this is optimistic too, as the team could conceivably really sink like last year, but is unlikely to win 10-11 games under even the best of circumstances.
There are a lot of things to be concerned about when you look at the team's preseason perfomances. The offense generally struggled, especially the passing game, but it's the defense that I worry about the most. The Browns added almost no one to a solid but medicore group, and that sort of stagnancy is a little scary. We are basically betting on key guys to significantly improve from their 2003 performance, and there's no way that happens with al the players we'd like to see that fro. Warren, okay I can see it. C Brown, I guess to a lesser extent. But at the outside linebacker spots? Can Lang and Roye really play any better? Can Robert Griffith do anything but go a the big hit? Can McCutcheon again be a reliable presence? There are just so many questions. I can see our d-line faring prety well. The linebackers, will probably be steady, and if they just don't over pursue too many plays I'll be happy. But the safeties have me petrified of big plays. And someone really has to step up at corner to pair with Anthony Henry, who has to maintain his high level of play. There are likely to be some bumps in the road and the lack of playmakers in the secondary is the biggest obstacle towards a playof run.
Right behind the secondary, the O-line is again a big concern. I don't like not having a promising aub at guard to plug in, and am dissappointed the Browns brought in no one during training camp. Yes, I like to think this speaks well of guys like Beasley and Demar and maybe it does, but they really, really need to prove it on the field. Anyway, this is mostly a question of depth. The starting 5 is good enough and should be formidable in the running game. In pass blocking I think Garmon is a bigger liability than anyone is talking about. Overall, the offense will have to play to the strengths of the offensive line. If they do that, the OL won't look good every week but could look good a majority of the time.
Garcia, though not a perfect QB, will be a huge upgrade and we'l see it as the season unfolds. His health is the major concern, because the offensive libne is not built to adequately protect a guy like Holcomb. I love Garcia's instincts and aggressiveness, and hopefully his leadership will produce some positive results. Like his last few years in San Fran, the Browns offense will have to be based on running the ball. We appear to have the personnel to do that well. I love Suggs, think Green is adequate, the addition of Terrell Smith will be noticeable, and even getting Winslow will hopefully soften up the middle of the field a bit. At WR, the reality has been that Morgan is not a reliable guy, Northcutt is a huge playmaker without the size to get consistent seperation, and Davis is solid also has some dificulty gettting open. Do we have some good tools here? Definitely. Is this among the better NFL receiving corps? No. It's middle-tier. Finally, Winslow promises to really change the face of this offense and gives the Browns a tremendous upside. If he's a game-breaker we'll have a dangerous offense; if he's a non-factor we'll struggle. It's that simple.
Ultimately, however, this season will come down to coaching. The 2004 squad is probably the best test of coaching you'll see in quite a while. The team has plenty of talent, and obvious shortcomings. The success/failure will depend largely on schemes and playcalling, in attacking the opponent using the skills we have. And after the kind of offseason that went on in Cleveland with Butch Davis gaining huge territorial ground in Berea, perhaps this is as it should be. We also have quite abit riding on Terry Robiskie's adjustment to offensive coordinator. It won't take more than a month to see how this is likely to pan out.
Final prediction: 8-8, with a 1 game swing either way. I think this is optimistic too, as the team could conceivably really sink like last year, but is unlikely to win 10-11 games under even the best of circumstances.
posted by Michael @ 9:29 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home