Draft Wisdom/Folly IV
Time to re-assess the Browns position. In a nutshell, I like it because they're in line to get a very good _football player_, as opposed to drafting for perceived needs. They'll also have options to trade up or down; we're unlikely to ever really know what presents itself, but I'd like to think that it's a big positive to have choices.
The offensive line. This is the one area where the team needs to draft an impact player, and this is also the one no-brainer of the draft -- the Browns will pick Robert Gallery if he somehow falls to #7. As Draft Day approaches, however, it's increasingly unlikely the Browns can get him without trading up into the top 5. Since O-Line is the one must-have of the draft, I think how the team approaches this position will shape it's entire draft. As I see it, there are 3 options:
What else could affect things? Couch and Northcutt. It's not a sure thing the Browns will get significant picks in return for these guys. I think if Couch goes to a place like Green Bay we'll only net a 4th or 5th round pick from it, and we should be happy. If another team shows interest, which isn't at all out of the question IMO, maybe the team gets a bit more.
With Northcutt on the other hand, I think it's very likely the Browns get something of value but it might not be before the draft. It's funny reading comments from agent Jerome Stanley and Northcutt in the paper -- they have essentially no leverage to force a trade. I think they either cave in now or cave in later (as in next offseason). And the Browns stand to gain either way by trading a player they had already planned on getting nothing for. Unless the Browns are really pining to draft a specific player come the 4th round on draft day, I just don't see Policy playing anything but hardball on this. Baltimore remains a possible trade partner, and any deal would probably involve acquiring their 2nd rounder, but if this happens it's likely to be an on-the-clock deal. It seems more likely the Browns will seek to get a 2nd or 3rd round pick from another team before the draft. This will require Jerome Stanley to actually look out for his client's career, however, and that's no sure thing.
Perhaps William Green gets traded before all is said and done. There are rumors of the Raiders being interested, and a swap of 1st round picks would seem to make a lot of sense if Oakland doesn't have one specific player in mind. But right now Green's value would seem to be low, and the Browns would benefit much from Green resuming his career. His trade value would surely be higher if he successfully makes it back on the team and contributes.
Yes, it'd be fantastic if the Browns acquired a 2nd and a 4th for these guys, or better yet used a trade of Northcutt and/or Couch to swap picks with a team like Arizona. It's not impossible, and frankly I think it would be a pretty good deal for some team out there. But this would take a fortunate turn of events that is quite rare in Cleveland sports. I'll be happy to pick up one decent pick for one of these guys. It's nice to have some chips to play with, but for now it's probably best to set expectations as if this won't play a factor.
The offensive line. This is the one area where the team needs to draft an impact player, and this is also the one no-brainer of the draft -- the Browns will pick Robert Gallery if he somehow falls to #7. As Draft Day approaches, however, it's increasingly unlikely the Browns can get him without trading up into the top 5. Since O-Line is the one must-have of the draft, I think how the team approaches this position will shape it's entire draft. As I see it, there are 3 options:
- Gallery is there at #7, the Browns pick him. This frees the team to pursue the BPA in the second round, where they should get a very promising player -- there are a lot of exciting WR prospects (Lee Evans would make a nice replacement for Northcutt, no?), some talented corners, or a guy like TE Ben Troupe. At first glance and without any draft-related trades, this would seem to be an ideal draft.
- Gallery is not there at #7, the Browns go with Sean Taylor, Kellen Winslow or Ben Roethlisberger. That likely leaves the Browns drafting from among OTs Jacob Rogers, Vernon Carey, Kelly Butler or OG Chris Snee in the second round. But frankly I wouldn't be shocked if the Browns opted for anopther player they have their eye on here, despite the needs on the OL. Why? The team won't find a starting LT here, and may decide to go with a guard in the next round. People may be up in arms over the failure to address the OL on the first day, but if it's not there you can't push it. I think this is actually the most likely scenario for the Browns, and it doesn't really upset me as long as the first two players picked are ballplayers.
- A trade up to get Gallery. This would be great provided the Browns retain their pick in the second. Check here for a very nice rundown of how this could happen. I'm pretty close to officially advocating this position -- we should proceed as if we will not again be picking in the top 10 for many years to come, so making a serious play for a franchise LT makes more sense this year than in the future.... I hope.
- A trade down. This really could lead us anywhere, but I will say this appears to be a good draft to have lots of picks in the late 1st through the second round.
What else could affect things? Couch and Northcutt. It's not a sure thing the Browns will get significant picks in return for these guys. I think if Couch goes to a place like Green Bay we'll only net a 4th or 5th round pick from it, and we should be happy. If another team shows interest, which isn't at all out of the question IMO, maybe the team gets a bit more.
With Northcutt on the other hand, I think it's very likely the Browns get something of value but it might not be before the draft. It's funny reading comments from agent Jerome Stanley and Northcutt in the paper -- they have essentially no leverage to force a trade. I think they either cave in now or cave in later (as in next offseason). And the Browns stand to gain either way by trading a player they had already planned on getting nothing for. Unless the Browns are really pining to draft a specific player come the 4th round on draft day, I just don't see Policy playing anything but hardball on this. Baltimore remains a possible trade partner, and any deal would probably involve acquiring their 2nd rounder, but if this happens it's likely to be an on-the-clock deal. It seems more likely the Browns will seek to get a 2nd or 3rd round pick from another team before the draft. This will require Jerome Stanley to actually look out for his client's career, however, and that's no sure thing.
Perhaps William Green gets traded before all is said and done. There are rumors of the Raiders being interested, and a swap of 1st round picks would seem to make a lot of sense if Oakland doesn't have one specific player in mind. But right now Green's value would seem to be low, and the Browns would benefit much from Green resuming his career. His trade value would surely be higher if he successfully makes it back on the team and contributes.
Yes, it'd be fantastic if the Browns acquired a 2nd and a 4th for these guys, or better yet used a trade of Northcutt and/or Couch to swap picks with a team like Arizona. It's not impossible, and frankly I think it would be a pretty good deal for some team out there. But this would take a fortunate turn of events that is quite rare in Cleveland sports. I'll be happy to pick up one decent pick for one of these guys. It's nice to have some chips to play with, but for now it's probably best to set expectations as if this won't play a factor.
posted by Michael @ 2:11 PM
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